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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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Peer-reviewed publication

Plausible alternative future of mangroves and their ecosystem services: Case studies from Asia-Pacific region

Over the past few decades, scenario analysis emerged as a useful tool for environmental decision-making amidst multiple uncertainties. Using the influential drivers of change, scenarios portray the range of plausible alternative futures useful for quantifying the synergies and trade-offs of vital ecosystem services across multiple develop- ment trajectories. In this research, we demonstrate two case ex- amples of the application of scenarios in quantifying current and future mangrove ecosystem services. The case studies are selected . from two representative sites: Tamsui River Estuary in Taiwan and Bhitarkanika mangroves in Odisha, India. Using the combination of Land Change Modeller (LCM) and InVEST ecosystem services sim- ulation tool, the research demonstrates the application and use of spatially explicit Scenarios for mangroves’ current and future con- servation. As such, the case studies identify an ameliorative way of future planning, particularly with respect to the eco-sensitive de- velopment of coastal regions and small islands.

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